Istanbul prone to a strong earthquake in next few decades

A new study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has revealed that Istanbul lies on the most energetic fault zones on the planet and so it can experience a strong quake anytime within the next few decades.

The details generated by the study have indicated that the North Anatolian Fault has been silent for quite some time now and it is likely that it is preparing for a major quake beneath the Sea of Marmara, a few kilometers west of Istanbul.

Over the years, the tension that gets accumulated in the segment of the fault releases itself through an earthquake that can move the earth by 11 feet within seconds. Going by the history of North Anatolian fault, the tension is supposed to get released in a series of smaller quakes or in one go with a very big quake.

For this current study, MIT researchers collaborated with the researchers from Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute in Istanbul. The seismic analysis this combined team did has been published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

The team began investigating this fault as they found it silent from very long which can be the case in two scenarios: one is when the fault has gone inactive and second is when it is building up huge strain. The team found out a fault running 745 miles across north Turkey.

For this analysis, the team made use of the GPS data at various locations. Along with it they measured the region's ground movement over the last 20 years. This tracking allowed the researchers to spot which parts of the crust are moving as compared to other parts. It also helped them in deducing the areas where these strain may lead to a fracture.

In 1999, a quake that occurred in the city of Izmit, east of Istanbul lasted for few seconds and killed thousands.

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