What led to the Rise of Civilizations?

Since many years, experts have been trying to find out the exact reason that led to the rise of the civilizations. Some blame History whereas a few others think that war drove the rise of same.

If we read the statements of the British historian Mr. Arnold Toynbee then he thinks that History has played a major role in between but Mr. Peter Turchin did not think similarly.

Mr. Turchin is a professor from the University of Connecticut in Storrs. He has recently published the findings of a new study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, which he believes will give an appropriate answer to the beliefs of Mr. Toynbee.

He and his colleagues have talked in their new study about their recent computer simulations, which they say, have shown that warfare is the main reason that led to the formation of empires, bureaucracies, and religions.

They explained that history is deterministic to a certain extent as it is driven by a complex set of events. Mr. Turchin's latest work is a combined effort by him and Mr. Thomas Currie, a lecturer in cultural evolution at the University of Exeter. With the help of the computer simulation they modeled all the largest societies falling in the years between 1500 BCE and 1500 CE. "It seems warfare created intense pressure that drove these societies", Mr. Currie said.